Solar News This Week - October 11, 2026

Tough times ahead for rooftop solar

New residential solar installations are expected to fall 21 percent this year compared to 2025, according to a the recently published SEIA / Wood Mackenzie U.S. Solar Market Insight Report

The causes are no mystery. Last year, the Trump administration signed a measure phasing out the main federal tax credit for rooftop solar — residential buyers had until the end of last year to get projects installed to qualify, while commercial businesses could stretch eligibility well into this year. On top of that action came tariffs on imported panels and components. The one-two punch of vanishing credits and rising equipment costs has had a severe impact on the residential solar market.

Solar installation companies employed about 179,000 people in 2024, and nearly half of them worked on residential systems. Many of those jobs are now at risk.

And this is all happening as solar equipment costs worldwide continue to decline. The median installed price of rooftop solar has fallen from $15.72 a watt in 2001, inflation-adjusted, to $3.62 a watt last year.

Outside the US, 2026 is also a down year — but for a totally different reason. SolarPower Europe forecasts global installations falling 8 percent to 612 GW, the first contraction in over two decades. That dip is almost entirely due to declining installations in China. After installing a record 382 GW last year (57 percent of the entire world's installations), solar within China is forecast to be down 24 percent this year due to steep cuts in tax credits and incentives within that nation.

70 percent U.S. solar manufacturing expansion plans yet to be financed

A new Solar Manufacturing USA Quarterly report is out, and it indicates a cooling trend for solar manufacturing within the US as well.

An analysis of more than 50 companies in the U.S. manufacturing space forecasts that solar PV manufacturing investment — capex — will decline year-on-year in 2027 compared to 2026, which is expected to land at around $3 billion.

For context, U.S. solar manufacturing capex peaked in 2024 at nearly $4 billion — but more than half of that came from just two companies: First Solar and Qcells. So, 2024 looks increasingly like a one-time outlier rather than the new normal. Had those two companies spread their spending into 2023 or 2025, the peak wouldn't have looked nearly so dramatic.

The report also finds that more than 70 percent of the manufacturing announcements made over the past 12 to 18 months — the ones that would have driven spending in 2027 — are either unfunded or stranded. The number of U.S. solar manufacturing sites now tops 60, but the total dollars for 2025, 2026, and 2027 all sit well below that 2024 peak.

Tesla's mega-sized ingot-to-module manufacturing plans make forward projections difficult. The report calls it potentially the most disruptive play in the history of U.S. solar manufacturing. Tesla recently announced plans to build a 3050-acre facility in Texas with a projected $10.1 billion total capital commitment — $1.5B in real property plus $8.6B in manufacturing equipment. Production is slated to begin in early 2029.

Four-hour battery storage now beats gas peaking on cost globally

Wood Mackenzie's latest global report on the levelized cost of electricity is out, and it marks a real turning point. Four-hour battery storage is now cheaper than open-cycle gas turbines in all 43 markets where both were modeled. And that's not a projection — that's today.

Solar, meanwhile, remains the world's least-cost energy option. Single-axis tracker solar is now the lowest-cost new-build technology in 43 of 48 modeled markets, with onshore wind taking the other five.

Worldwide solar and battery storage continue their rapid price declines. North America is the outlier on cost pressure — where tariffs, import duties, and new Section 232 restrictions are projected to push module prices up about 5 percent a year through 2030. But even within the US, the report notes gas generation is entering a supply deficit through the late 2030s, driven by data center load growth — which only strengthens the long-term case for renewables and storage.

New York Public Service Commission approves meter socket adapter pilot

New York just cleared a path for one of the simplest cost-cutting technologies in residential solar. The Public Service Commission has approved a statewide two-year pilot for meter socket adapters — devices that plug directly into a home's existing electric meter socket and let solar inverters, batteries, and EV chargers connect right at the meter, bypassing the main electrical panel entirely.

For many homeowners, a main panel upgrade adds thousands of dollars to a solar or battery project — sometimes making the project unaffordable. The pilot opens June 1st, 2027, when installers can start submitting interconnection applications using adapters from a utility-approved list. After two years, utilities must report back on any operational impacts or safety concerns.

Nearby states like Colorado, Arizona, New Jersey, Maryland, and Connecticut already have adapter rules in place.